For years, members of Iraq’s Turkmen community have demanded that Tal Afar be elevated from its current status as a district in Nineveh to that of a full governorate. These calls have intensified as the Iraqi government is considering agreeing to Halabja in Iraqi Kurdistan becoming the country’s 19th governorate. In response, Turkmen MPs earlier this year began collecting signatures to add a draft legislation about Tal Afar’s status to the parliamentary agenda.
On Apr. 2, Badr Organization MP Gharib Turkmani announced that the effort had succeeded and that the matter would be discussed in future sessions. Months later, there is no movement on the issue. Meanwhile, objections from some Arab and Turkmen political parties over the lack of similar projects for other regions, including Tal Afar, have halted the establishment of a new Kurdish governorate.
Tal Afar is the largest district in Iraq’s northern Nineveh Governorate, bordering the districts of Hatra, Mosul, and Sinjar along with Duhok Governorate in Iraqi Kurdistan. It has an estimated population of 511,000 residents, according to the National Center for Statistics in the Ministry of Planning. Its main population center is home to some 215,000 people, evenly divided between Sunni and Shiite Turkmens.
Some 295,000 people reside in Tal Afar’s outlying districts, including Sunni Turkmens in Al-Ayadiyah, Sunni Arabs in Rabia, and a combination of Sunni Arabs and Kurds in Zummar. The latter is a part of the so-called disputed areas and claimed by both Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Beyond ethnic tensions, it should be noted that the area around Tal Afar has also been the scene of intense sectarian conflict since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. It was occupied by the Islamic State group (IS) in 2014, before being liberated in 2017. Many of its former residents remain displaced and have not returned home, including a significant number of Sunnis who fled to Turkey and decided to settle there.
What a new governorate means
Elevating Tal Afar’s status to a full governorate would be a major step for the Iraqi Turkmen community because it would be the first time that they would constitute the numerical majority in a governorate.
Numbering 2-3M, the Turkmen community is the third-largest ethnic group in Iraq, after Arabs and Kurds, and is split evenly between Shiites and Sunnis. At present, Turkmen political power is splintered across several governorates, including Kirkuk, Salah Al-Din, and Nineveh. Endowed with new administrative powers, the proposed governorate would replace Kirkuk as the center of the Turkmen political world.
Turkmeneli Party chairperson Riyaz Sarkahya told Amwaj.media that “the project of turning Tal Afar into a governorate is a strategic goal for most Turkmen political forces.” If realized, the new governorate would strengthen the community’s political position in a part of Iraq where it has generally been marginalized by Nineveh Governorate’s overall Sunni Arab majority.
Moreover, such a move would represent an opportunity to increase funding to rebuild the area following the war against IS, including Tal Afar city which was 70% destroyed during the conflict. Turkmen nationalists also want to leverage the area’s location on the border with Turkey to increase trade by embarking on new infrastructure projects. For example, the proposed “Development Road” and Dry Canal project, which are geared to connect southern Iraq with Turkey, traverse the area.
But not all observers see the proposed new governorate as the panacea offered up by its supporters. Jaafar Talafari, a Turkmen writer and lawyer, downplayed the significance of Tal Afar enjoying governorate status. He argued that residents are more concerned with practical issues like jobs and good public services.
“For the citizens of Tal Afar, the project to turn the city into a governorate is a matter of administration and service,” Talafari told Amwaj.media, “It is not a political issue. As a city, we have all the necessary components to become a governorate, [but] we want to have service departments that can meet the growing needs of citizens.”
Changes for Sunni Arabs
The Sunni Arab community is concerned about Tal Afar gaining governorate status for economic and political reasons. First, Sunni parties in Nineveh would lose votes from Sunni Turkmens who would no longer be a part of the constituency. Second, Sunni Arabs worry that the new governorate will be controlled by Shiite forces, which could contribute to what they see as problematic demographic change in northern Iraq. Finally, it would cut off direct access from Mosul to Turkey.
Ammar Kahya, a Turkmen politician from Kirkuk, downplayed these considerations by pointing out that the majority of Tal Afar’s population is Sunni, and especially outlying districts. He told Amwaj.media, “The fears of the Arabs stem from the possibility that their political role will decline as a result of the separation of Tal Afar from Mosul.”
He also noted that the Sunni population would increase if more Turkmens who were displaced by IS would return home. A more remote concern for Sunni Arabs is that separating Tal Afar from Nineveh will stall efforts to establish a new Sunni region under Iraq’s constitution, similar to neighboring Iraqi Kurdistan. Supporters of the proposal for a semi-autonomous Sunni region argue that once such an entity is set up, Tal Afar can be made a governorate within such a structure.
Competition between Iran and Turkey
Last but certainly not least, geopolitical concerns are also a factor in the debate on whether Tal Afar should become a full governorate. Iran maintains close ties with Iraq’s Shiite population as a way to exert influence over its neighbor, including by supporting political parties and armed groups. This reach has extended to Tal Afar, which has a significant Shiite population.
Iranian activity in the area has increased in recent years as a part of the fight against IS. Many Turkmen forces within the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) have allied with Tehran and used Tal Afar’s strategic location on the Syrian border to support Iran’s cross-border activities.
Firas Elias, a professor at Mosul University who specializes in Iraqi and Iranian affairs, told Amwaj.media that “the attempt to establish a Tal Afar Governorate is a political issue with regional implications.” In his view, “Shiite forces” are pursuing the project because they want to “strengthen their influence in the Iraqi, Turkish, and Syrian tri-border region.”
Turkey would likely challenge any Iranian bid for dominance of a new governorate. Ankara has strong historical and cultural ties with the Turkmen and Sunni communities in Tal Afar. Leveraging the city’s location on a major international transportation route would be an economic boon for Turkey. Competition between the two regional powers, however, could undermine efforts to economically develop the area.
While the Turkmen community sees the elevation of Tal Afar to Iraq’s 20th governorate as an important step in building its power within Iraq, the proposal will face opposition from a number of constituencies. Sunni Arabs worry that it will empower local Shiites, while Baghdad will be keen to avoid further geopolitical competition between Iran and Turkey within its borders. As a result, it remains unclear whether the proposal will advance—at least any time soon.
Source: Amwaj Media
